2025 Virginia AI Forecast: Democrats to Flip Governor, Republicans Keep Attorney General

For the first time in 24 years, models predict a split outcome in Virginia with Republican incumbent Jason Miyares holding on in the Attorney General race.

It’s go time in Virginia with the race for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General in the final stretch.

A lot has happened between now and the last time we checked in on this race. From where things stand now, we’re close enough to make a final prediction using our AI bot models with a baseline prompt factoring in all available information.

This goes beyond simply analyzing polls, but also looking at historical trends, early vote data, fundraising, prediction markets, and other unforeseen things that may drive the outcome of the race.

As usual, we will use a collective approach, query four LLM AI bots (ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Claude), and average their results for the broadest consensus. The goal here is not deep analytical precision but to test and prove how well these platforms can analyze future events.

2025 Virginia Governor - Spanberger (D) vs. Earle-Sears (R)

Which candidate has the most likely chance of winning in November based on polls, historical trends, current trends, early vote data, prediction markets, and other factors?

• Abigail Spanberger (D) — ~86% chance to win

• Winsome Earle-Sears (R) — ~14% chance to win

Here’s the breakdown among all models:

Predicted model outcome as of October 27, 2025

All signs point to a likely, though not assured, Spanberger victory in November.

2025 Virginia Lt. Governor - Hashmi (D) vs. Reid (R)

The race for Lieutenant Governor usually follows the top line, meaning that if Spanberger wins, Hashmi will most likely win right beneath her. If convention holds, Hashmi would be more along the lines of the same chances as Spanberger, but she’s lagging behind.

• Ghazala Hashmi (D) — ~62% chance to win

• John Reid (R) — ~38% chance to win

Here’s the breakdown showing a bit more uncertainty in this race, but falling in line with putting Hashmi as the likely winner:

Signs point to a Hashmi victory on election night, though a Reid upset is possible if Spanberger’s margin is narrower than expected.

2025 Virginia Attorney General - Jones (D) vs. Miyares (R)

Out of the three races, this one is the only one with an incumbent running for re-election. It’s also the brightest spot for Republicans hoping to hold at least one statewide race in Virginia. Thanks to Democratic challenger Jay Jones being embroiled in a nasty scandal over text messages in which he wished death on a former Republican colleague (and his colleague’s children), Miyares is projected to win this race.

Up until that scandal broke, Democrats were poised to sweep statewide.

• Jason Miyares (R) — ~60.5% chance to win

• Jay Jones (D) — ~39.5% chance to win

The chart shows a clear consensus trend in Miyares’ favor.

Miayres could still lose this race if Spanberger’s top-line victory is enough to carry Jones despite Jones’ toxic appeal to moderates and independents. However, it remains likely to stay red based on the modeling.

Final Prediction

Based on the analysis, our modeling would expect this outcome on November 4, 2025:

🔵Governor - Abigail Spanberger (D)

🔵Lt. Governor - Ghazala Hashmi (D)

🔴Attorney General - Jason Miayres (R)

If this happens, it would be the first time in 24 years that all three of the top statewide offices are not controlled by the same party.

In fact, the likely 2025 outcome would mirror the actual 2001 outcome with a Democratic Governor (Mark Warner) and Lt. Governor (Tim Kaine), coupled with a Republican Attorney General (Jerry Kilgore).

Regardless of the result, we’ll be back to bat cleanup and examine where our analysis was correct or went off the rails.