AI Election Model - 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary [Week 1 - July 14 Update]

We've got years to go, but what does AI think about the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination? We'll cover the GOP in future editions but with a sitting Vice President, the field is less open.

Jul 14, 2025

Not surprisingly, names like former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom float to the top. After all, Harris was the most recent Democratic nominee, so she’s still got a spot in line if she wants it. Then again, she did fall out of the 2020 primary with around 2% support.

Newsom has been prominently fighting the Trump administration on practically everything, so, naturally, Democrats would be attuned to his brand, which trickles down to the AI models.

Buttigieg and Shapiro seem like long shots, but it’s way too early to say that, even though I just did. At this point in the cycle, a lot of the prediction data is filled with leftovers from 2020. Booker? Really? Claude needs to check his sources.

Related Article: 2028 Republican Primary

So, here it is, the inaugural AI Election Model report on July 14, 2025.

Model Average (July 14, 2025)

The average above is based on the data below. Each model is weighted evenly for now.

Grok 3 (xAI)

35% -Kamala Harris
20% - Pete Buttigieg
15% - Gavin Newsom
10% - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8% - Josh Shapiro

Gemini 2.5 Flash (Google)

25% - Gavin Newsom
20% - Kamala Harris
15% - Pete Buttigieg
10% - Gretchen Whitmer
10% - Josh Shapiro

ChatGPT-4o (OpenAI)

35% – Gavin Newsom
25% – Kamala Harris
15% – Pete Buttigieg
10% – Gretchen Whitmer
8% – Josh Shapiro

Claude Sonnet 4 (Anthropic)

34% - Kamala Harris
16% - Pete Buttigieg
12% - Gavin Newsom
7% - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
7% - Cory Booker

Note: These values are merely predictions resulting from prompts asked of each model on the date noted. The model is asked to consider current trends, historical data, and other points to make these predictions. This is basically for entertainment.

AI Election Model