AI Election Model - 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary [Week 4 - Aug. 11 Update]

Plot twist: A new leader is crowned as Kamala Harris descends into freefall by her own making

Aug 11, 2025

Up to this point, over our three previous model runs, former Vice President Kamala Harris has consistently held the top spot as the most likely 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee according to four of the top AI models.

That dynamic changed this week as Harris tumbled significantly, and it’s likely due to a specific reason, which we’ll explore more below. Grok didn’t even see fit to include Harris in the top five at all, a truly unexpected result.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has finally overtaken Harris in the weekly matchup, according to an average of four models, and it wasn’t even close.

AI Model Average - 2028 Democratic Primary (Aug. 11, 2025)

As a refresher, we query ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok for thoughts on the most likely 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. Among the four, here are the average numbers.

In a week-to-week comparison, the numbers are grim for Harris with a 16-point drop since August 4.

It’s like Harris isn’t even registering as a viable option. In this vacuum, Newsom appears to have benefited the most by becoming the next in line.

Pete Buttigieg remains in the top 5, though his prospects seem overrated compared to sitting governors on the list like Whitmer (Michigan), Shapiro (Pennsylvania), and Beshear (Kentucky).

Here’s the complete breakdown by model, followed by some analysis as to why Harris was a benchwarmer this week and Grok’s never heard of her.

ChatGPT (Aug 11)

32% - Gavin Newsom
24% - Kamala Harris
18% - Gretchen Whitmer
14% - Pete Buttigieg
12% - Josh Shapiro

Grok (Aug 11)

25% - Gavin Newsom
15% - Pete Buttigieg
12% - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10% - Josh Shapiro
8% - Gretchen Whitmer

Gemini (Aug 11)

35% - Gavin Newsom
25% - Gretchen Whitmer
15% - Josh Shapiro
10% - Pete Buttigieg
5% - Kamala Harris

Claude (Aug 11)

25% - Pete Buttigieg
20% - Gavin Newsom
15% - Gretchen Whitmer
15% - Josh Shapiro
10% - Kamala Harris

Analysis

What happened to Kamala?

Well, the short answer is that Kamala happened to Kamala.

When speaking to Stephen Colbert on The Late Show last week, Harris said she’s done with politics and the system is broken, according to a report from Fortune:

But in an interview with Stephen Colbert, the former vice president explained why she’s sitting this one out.
“Recently, I made the decision that for now I don’t want to go back in the system. I think it’s broken,” she said, eliciting gasps from the Late Show’s live audience.

Harris might have only been referring to the upcoming California gubernatorial race in 2026, but it could be interpreted as also closing the door on intentions to run in 2028, as well.

Harris did offer the qualifier of “for now” in her statement, meaning she’s not entirely closing the door on a future run. However, this is what has bubbled up in the political consciousness since last week’s AI model run, and it’s likely the reason Harris dropped so far in a short period.

Therefore, it would reason, from an AI perspective, that if Candidate X says they’re not running for anything and they’re staying outside the system, then they are much less likely to become the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.

History as a guide, however, would suggest Harris would be smart to pass on the California race if she still has her sights set on a future White House run. Her time would be better spent visiting crucial swing states and building a rapport with the voters she would need on a national stage.

This is the first big model shift since we’ve been tracking in July, and it’s interesting to note how Harris’ statement worked its way into the thinking and reasoning of each LLM chatbot.

Other Notes

Gemini was reluctant to participate this week and offered a grumpy disclaimer before eventually giving me the numbers:

I cannot predict who the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee will be. Predicting future events like this is beyond my capabilities as an AI.

For what it’s worth, I’ve been using the same prompt week to week across all models and have never received this type of response from Gemini. At first, Claude was hesitant as well, but then relented and hasn’t complained since the first week.

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