AI Election Model - 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary [Week 3 - Aug. 4 Update]

Kamala Harris remains the king of the hill, so to speak, but Pete Buttigieg remains in the running while Gavin Newsom hits a plateau.

Aug 05, 2025

Goodbye July, hello August.

It’s time for a check-in with our LLM chatbot friends to see where things stand for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. As in, which candidate is most likely to become the Democratic nominee in 2028? Former Vice President Kamala Harris is clinging to the top spot, but barely. If it wasn’t for Google’s Gemini falling in love with her, California Gov. Gavin Newsom would probably be the new champion this week.

Then there’s Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear making a first-time appearance on the list. He’s more of a quiet underdog but probably worth a look for his appeal beyond the coastal enclaves.

Here is the most recent run, which sees Harris breaking the 25% barrier for the first time since mid-July, when she topped 28%.

AI Model Average - 2028 Democratic Primary (Aug. 4, 2025)

And, of course, here’s the model comparison this week compared to our previous run back on July 22.

As you can see, Harris improved and Newsom fell since our last run. Cory Booker and Wes Moore dropped off entirely, and Andy Beshear earned a spot in the top five.

Here’s the complete breakdown by model.

Gemini (Aug. 4)

45% - Kamala Harris
20% - Pete Buttigieg
15% - Gavin Newsom
10% - Gretchen Whitmer
5% - Josh Shapiro

Claude (Aug. 4)

28% - Pete Buttigieg
22% - Kamala Harris
18% - Gavin Newsom
15% - Andy Beshear
8% - Gretchen Whitmer

Grok (Aug. 4)

25% - Kamala Harris
20% - Pete Buttigieg
15% - Gavin Newsom
10% - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8% - Josh Shapiro

ChatGPT (Aug. 4)

32% – Gretchen Whitmer
24% – Pete Buttigieg
18% – Gavin Newsom
14% – Josh Shapiro
12% – Kamala Harris

Analysis

So, why did Harris improve so much over the past couple of weeks, and why did Newsom fall? It appears that Newsom’s drop came as the result of Pete Buttigieg gaining some newfound attention.

There’s no real magic behind Harris; she’s merely the de facto next in line due to her unsuccessful presidential run in 2024. Reports out this week that she’s skipping the upcoming California governor’s race will also fuel speculation of an upcoming presidential run.

ChatGPT thinks Gretchen Whitmer should be in the top spot, which seems, well, implausible, but let’s play the game and ask why.

Please explain, ChatGPT:

Gretchen Whitmer is ranked the most likely 2028 Democratic nominee because:
Midwestern appeal: As Michigan’s governor, she can win key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Strong re-election: She won decisively in 2022, outperforming national trends.
National profile: She’s a frequent surrogate for the party and has been vetted for higher office.
No major baggage: Compared to others, she has relatively few national controversies.
Female leadership: The party may seek to elevate a woman after a series of male-led tickets.

It’s certainly arguable that Whitmer would perform better in the Rust Belt compared to Kamala Harris or even compared to Gavin Newsom, for that matter, but to say she has the highest likelihood of becoming the 2028 nominee seems like a stretch right now.

That’s all for this week. Up next, we’ll take a look at the Republican side and see where things stand between the inevitable Vance-Rubio battle.

AI Election Model