AI Election Model - 2028 Republican Presidential Primary [Week 4 - Aug. 15 Update]
Vance grows his market share but a Florida Republican is showing some new potential
It’s almost the weekend, but we’re going to make it.
Here’s your weekly look at where AI models think the 2028 Republican Presidential primary could be headed.
Yes, I’ll admit, we're a couple of years early, but as the data gets collected and weeks turn into months, which in turn become years, there’s a lot of insight to glean from this exercise.
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Now, let’s get on to the numbers on this mid-August Friday afternoon as we finish the Dog Days of Summer. Technically, those days ended on Aug. 11, but we can still claim it.
Here’s the model average this week for which candidates these four AI models (Grok, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude) think have the best likelihood to become the 2028 GOP presidential nominee. I’ve switched the GOP charts to red for clarification.
Model Average - 2028 Republican Nomination (Aug. 15, 2025)
Model Comparison - 2028 Republican Nomination (Aug. 15 vs. Aug. 5)
Here’s the comparison from our last run back on Aug. 5. Vice President JD Vance’s position has strengthened since last week by five points, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley both increased by a few points.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on the other hand, softened a couple of points.
Of the two, it’s laughable (no offense) to consider Haley as the 2028 GOP nominee. The fact that she ranks this high prompted me to check if her name had been in the news over the past 10 days. It was not, at least not in any meaningful way.
Finally, here’s the model breakdown with numbers from each platform.
ChatGPT (Aug. 15)
35% - JD Vance
20% - Ron DeSantis
15% - Marco Rubio
12% - Nikki Haley
10% - Glenn Youngkin
Grok (Aug. 15)
55% - JD Vance
12% - Marco Rubio
10% - Ron DeSantis
8% - Vivek Ramaswamy
5% - Nikki Haley
Gemini (Aug. 15)
55% - JD Vance
15% - Marco Rubio
10% - Ron DeSantis
5% - Glenn Youngkin
5% - Donald Trump Jr
Claude (Aug. 15)
35% - JD Vance
20% - Ron DeSantis
15% - Nikki Haley
12% - Marco Rubio
8% - Tim Scott
Analysis
While Nikki Haley’s stock rose for basically unknown reasons, Ron DeSantis appeared to be surging this week, and there’s a likely explanation.
Once a friend-turned-enemy-turned-friend of Donald Trump, DeSantis has done everything he can to continuously be seen as supportive of the President’s second term.
Just this week, DeSantis was fighting with reporters defending the President’s immigration policies and announced Florida would be opening a second immigrant detention center.
In other words, DeSantis is doing everything he can within his power as Governor to remain present and relevant on the national stage in the eyes of MAGA faithful. That doesn’t mean they’ll forgive him for challenging Trump in 2024, but it’s a start.
Our panel of AI models has likely noticed this as well, which is why DeSantis’ numbers have jumped over Rubio, according to Claude and ChatGPT.
Maybe the 2028 GOP primary will pan out with a top tier of JD Vance, followed by a second tier of DeSantis and Rubio. I’d include Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin in the mix as well, but by that time, he may risk drifting out of the national spotlight since his term-limited tenure in Richmond ends this year.
That’s it for this week. Get back to the pool before August turns into September.
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If we're being honest, Nikki Haley and Tim Scott aren't real contenders in 2028 on the GOP side. They just aren't. If you think so, please explain.