AI Election Model - 2028 Republican Presidential Primary [Week 2 - July 23 Update]
Time for a new run and new dominating numbers from Vice President JD Vance, but we lost Glenn Youngkin and Tim Scott.
Not much of a surprise that Vice President JD Vance once again retains the top spot as the most likely 2028 Republican presidential nominee. However, the number two position has swapped between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The DeSantis-Rubio battle is quietly playing out right now, but could turn into a hot war come 2028. More on that in the analysis below.
For this week, here’s the model average of which candidate, at present time, is most likely to become the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
Model Average (July 23, 2025)
The latest survey of LLM models produces a dominating show for Vice President JD Vance that dwarfs his numbers from last week.
Model Average Change (July 15-23, 2025)
The biggest loser from last week to this week is DeSantis, while Vance expanded his lead and Rubio improved slightly.
Here’s the detailed breakdown by each model for this week’s run.
Grok (July 23)
56% - JD Vance
10% - Ron DeSantis
8% - Marco Rubio
6% - Nikki Haley
5% - Vivek Ramaswamy
ChatGPT (July 23)
27% – JD Vance
8% – Ron DeSantis
7% – Vivek Ramaswamy
6% – Marco Rubio
4% – Donald Trump Jr.
Claude (July 23)
46% - JD Vance
12% - Marco Rubio
9% - Ron DeSantis
5% - Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
3% - Donald Trump Jr.
Gemini (July 23)
46% - JD Vance
12% - Marco Rubio
9% - Ron DeSantis
5% - Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2% - Kristi Noem
Analysis
The tier-two battle between DeSantis and Rubio could wind up being the most interesting storyline from the hypothetically competitive 2028 GOP primary.
With that said, which candidate currently has the edge? Let’s ask our panel.
According to Gemini, DeSantis is starting in a hole due to his missteps stemming from his 2024 flameout.
Marco Rubio has a better chance than Ron DeSantis.
Why: Marco Rubio was predicted at 12% compared to Ron DeSantis at 9%. This suggests that, at the time of that assessment, Rubio was perceived as having a slightly more viable path or broader appeal within the Republican field. DeSantis's previous presidential campaign challenges or perceived political missteps may have contributed to his lower initial standing in that model's calculation.
Fair enough and probably notable. Will the MAGA base forgive DeSantis for challenging Trump? Some will, sure, but some won’t. He also ran a weak campaign in general, leading some to have concerns over his ability to translate gubernatorial success to a national stage.
On the other hand, DeSantis does have a previous campaign to build on and is spending his time rebuilding trust with MAGA.
ChatGPT thinks this could end up giving him an advantage in 2028 over Rubio:
If I had to pick one, Ron DeSantis has the better chance over Marco Rubio—primarily because:
Name recognition: DeSantis has stronger national visibility from his 2024 presidential run and governorship of Florida.
Base appeal: He commands more support among the MAGA base than Rubio, who is seen as more establishment.
Fundraising & infrastructure: DeSantis built a national network in 2024, which he can reactivate.
It’s not clear if ChatGPT’s “base appeal” point applies any longer. Rubio has been a standout in the current administration, winning praise from MAGA faithful and establishment figures alike.
DeSantis risks falling into the hole of forgotten governors depending on how the final year of his term-limited tenure ends in 2026. He could parlay it into a presidential run depending on the circumstances, but he could also just as easily fail to gain momentum.
This all assumes that Vance enters 2028 as the clear favorite and everyone else is clawing to hit double-digits.
What would it take over the next few years for Vance to no longer be the likely Trump successor in 2028? A lot can happen between now and then, of course.