AI Election Model - 2028 Republican Presidential Primary [Week 3 - Aug. 5 Update]
All Vance, all the time
Assuming there is a competitive primary on the Republican side in 2028, what would JD Vance have to do before GOP primary voters start looking at someone else? For the time being, Vance is locked in as the de facto nominee and the obvious MAGA heir.
As discussed in our last examination of where things stand in a potential 2028 GOP primary field, Vance stands alone with almost-untouchable odds of carrying the Trump mantle into 2028.
Marco Rubio, for what it’s worth, is frequently mentioned as well, but the historical precedent and President Trump's ability to tip the scale seem overwhelming.
In other words, if Trump were to annoint a successor, and that successor was Vance, would the primary be over before it started?
Forget it, here are the numbers you came for.
Model Average - 2028 Republican Nomination (Aug. 5, 2025)
Model Comparison - 2028 Republican Nomination (Aug. 5 vs. July 23)
Here’s the comparison from our last run back on July 23. Glenn Youngkin and Brian Kemp have joined the ranks this time around, with Kristi Noem missing the cut.
And, finally, here’s the model breakdown with numbers from each platform. The interesting part about breaking these out by model will be the future analysis we can run, identifying trends and biases for and against various candidates.
Grok (Aug. 5)
35% - JD Vance
20% - Marco Rubio
15% - Ron DeSantis
10% - Brian Kemp
8% - Nikki Haley
ChatGPT (Aug. 5)
34% – JD Vance
22% – Ron DeSantis
18% – Marco Rubio
14% – Glenn Youngkin
12% – Nikki Haley
Gemini (Aug. 5)
46% - J.D. Vance
12% - Marco Rubio
9% - Ron DeSantis
5% - Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
4% - Donald Trump Jr.
Claude (Aug. 5)
46% - JD Vance
12% - Marco Rubio
9% - Ron DeSantis
7% - Vivek Ramaswamy
5% - Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Analysis
If the 2028 GOP primary hinges on President Trump’s blessing, there has been some movement in that regard. Up until now, Trump has been reticent to “crown” anyone his successor, instead preferring to demur on the topic and create opportunity for competition among his subordinates, a power dynamic he cultivates.
However, the President was asked about 2028 this week and said that Vance, as the Vice President, is the most likely next in line, but then floated the idea of a Vance-Rubio ticket:
Video credit: Nick Sorter on X
Not only will Trump influence who becomes the 2028 nominee, but he will likely play a large role in shaping the entire ticket. This could create some conflict, of course, assuming that Vance (or whoever) doesn’t want to merely be seen as a puppet of his prior boss.
2028 is going to be a wild ride.
Trump seems to like the idea of a Vance-Rubio ticket. Two young guys with decades ahead of them would certainly cement MAGA as the reigning thread of GOP politics for many election cycles.