Can AI Fix the Democratic Presidential Primary Calendar?
A mix of fairness, demographic shifts, and broad appeal can be a difficult balance amid a leftward lurch by the Democratic Party base.
Is our current presidential primary system broken or just tainted? As demographics shift, is it time to reconsider the order of voting states? In 2024, Democrats made a change to upgrade South Carolina to first in the nation status at the expense of Iowa and New Hampshire.
The logic for recent changes has been dictated almost entirely by demographic shifts and a push for a more diverse coalition of voters to have a larger voice earlier in the process. In layman’s terms, Iowa and New Hampshire are both too demographically white to have such undue early primary influence in present-day Democratic Party politics.
However, Democrats have not yet found a way to rebuild the Obama coalition of 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2012. One could argue they came close in 2020 with Joe Biden’s victory, but the circumstances resulting from the pandemic and voting pattern irregularities provide a difficult benchmark for true comparison.
In 2016 and 2024, Democrats lost much of their working-class appeal and have yet to regain the Rust Belt stranglehold they once owned.
Now, heading into what will ultimately be an incredibly competitive and wide-open 2028 primary, Democrats must once again consider how best to achieve consensus on a candidate that can appeal broadly enough to overcome Republican inroads in the Rust Belt and beyond.
I asked the AI models to provide suggestions for how Democrats could re-order a primary calendar that would better represent the party without sacrificing white working-class appeal, and here are the results.
Key Findings from AI Models
South Carolina receives the most attention as the best lead-off state
Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia are all considered critically important as well
Two models want to add Pennsylvania to the list of early voting states
Georgia is a common suggestion for the early voting list despite its regional proximity to South Carolina
Gemini keeps New Hampshire in the mix as a nod to New England, and ChatGPT thinks the Badger State should join the party
Here’s the graphical breakdown of where each state stands, as weighted by how often the state is mentioned and how early it should vote in the primary process:
ChatGPT
Early Primary Voting Order
South Carolina
Nevada
Michigan
Georgia
Pennsylvania & Wisconsin (tied week)
Explanation
Inclusion of Rust Belt states early helps ensure the platform addresses shared concerns across class lines—like economic populism, union strength, and job security—while still centering racial and geographic diversity.
Preserves small-state retail politics skills (via South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan) without sacrificing representativeness.
Encourages broader candidate viability, since diverse early electorates test appeal in multiple coalitions, not just urban or minority voters.
Mitigates risk of alienating working-class whites by embedding key battleground states in the early window rather than relegating them to Super Tuesday.
Grok 3
Early Primary Voting Order
Michigan
South Carolina
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Explanation
Broader Representation: Includes Rust Belt (Michigan, Pennsylvania) and diverse states (South Carolina, Nevada, Georgia), reflecting white working-class, Black, and Latino voters, unlike the recent South Carolina-Georgia focus that overlooked Rust Belt concerns.
Fairness: Early Michigan and Pennsylvania slots give white working-class voters a voice, addressing the recent delay of Rust Belt states (e.g., Michigan fifth) that alienated swing-state voters.
Competitive Balance: Prioritizes battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia) early, pushing candidates to tackle diverse and working-class issues, improving general election readiness over the recent southern tilt.
Reduced Alienation: Front-loading Rust Belt states prevents neglecting white working-class voters (e.g., 2016 Trump shift) while maintaining diversity commitments.
Claude
Early Primary Voting Order
South Carolina
Michigan
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Explanation
Demographic Representation: Better reflects Democratic coalition that's 56% non-Hispanic white with almost half of primary voters being non-white
White Working-Class Engagement: Michigan (Week 2) and Pennsylvania (Week 4) preserve influence of white voters without college degrees who comprise 27% of Democratic voters
Strategic Value: All five states are swing states or electorally important, making early organizing there beneficial for general election success.
Gemini
Early Primary Voting Order
South Carolina
Nevada
Michigan
Georgia
New Hampshire
Explanation
Diverse Early States: Prioritizes Black and Latino voters early with SC, NV, GA.
Engages Rust Belt Early: Michigan's early inclusion directly addresses white working-class voters.
Geographic & Battleground Focus: Broadens early representation across regions and key general election states.
Distributes Influence: Prevents any single state from dominating the early narrative.
Analysis
There is near-absolute consensus among the models that South Carolina is important for the Democratic Party presidential primary process. Beyond that, it can devolve into mixed opinions, but Michigan and Nevada also remain important on the list.
Perhaps the unexpected addition is Georgia, which three of four models think would be important for Democrats to move toward the front of the line despite its regional proximity to South Carolina. This is likely an acknowledgment that Democrats may need to flip a red-leaning state like Georgia if they’re going to win the presidency in the future.
None of these changes happen easily, states dislike giving up their political sway or surrendering millions of dollars in economic activity created by early presidential campaigning.
If Democrats want to turn around their electoral prospects, which are often tied to focusing on an appeal to coastal elites, they have somewhere to start.
Then again, if it’s not broke, does it really need fixing? The previous system produced Barack Obama in 2008, leading to Democrats holding the White House for eight years.