AI Election Model - 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary [Week 5 - Aug. 18 Update]
Kamala Harris falls further while Pete Buttigieg makes some headlines as Gavin Newsom remains the one to beat - Plus our new monthly trend chart!
As noted last week, former Vice President Kamala Harris has tumbled further down the list of most likely 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee according to four of the top AI models.
The reasoning for this is likely related to Harris’ comments that she currently has no plans to run for anything and will remain “outside the system.” Factoring these comments, most AI models are now dropping her chances for 2028.
Before we get into this week’s Democratic presidential primary model, take a minute to subscribe and consider a paid subscription if you haven’t already. Your support will directly contribute to continuing this line of research and content into the coming election cycles—many thanks for considering my request.
Since this is only Week 5 of this research and analysis, it’s unclear how much variance we should expect to see week to week or month to month.
With that said, the models are in less agreement this week than at any point in this series. We cap the query to the top five most likely 2028 Democratic presidential nominees as judged by ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, and Gemini. This limit helps to reduce the number of names and force the models to consider various factors that would rule someone in or out of the top five.
AI Model Average - 2028 Democratic Primary (Aug. 18, 2025)
As a refresher, we query ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok for thoughts on the most likely 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. Among the four, here are the average numbers for this week.
Comparing week-to-week, Gavin Newsom remained steady while Pete Buttigieg saw the biggest gain overall.
Meanwhile, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro both took a dive after having previous record highs. Also, Tim Walz appeared out of nowhere for some reason.
With Harris now hovering around a one in ten chance, there is a vacuum that cannot entirely be filled by Gavin Newsom, which explains the longer list this week.
AI Model Monthly Trend - 2028 Democratic Nomination (July 14 to Aug. 18)
Here’s a new chart to toss in the mix now that we have a month’s worth of data. There’s a clear pattern emerging of Harris losing clout since mid-July, while Newsom has gained ground. Even Buttigieg, gaining this week, hasn’t beaten his previous numbers from August 4.
This chart only includes the top five candidates that have appeared at least three times in the past five weeks. This way, we weed out one-offs and noise.
Here’s the complete breakdown by model for this week, followed by some analysis.
ChatGPT (Aug. 18)
30% - Gavin Newsom
22% - Kamala Harris
18% - Gretchen Whitmer
15% - Pete Buttigieg
10% - Josh Shapiro
Grok (Aug. 18)
25% - Gavin Newsom
20% - Pete Buttigieg
15% - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10% - Kamala Harris
8% - Josh Shapiro
Gemini (Aug. 18)
35% - Pete Buttigieg
25% - Gavin Newsom
15% - Kamala Harris
10% - Gretchen Whitmer
5% - Josh Shapiro
Claude (Aug. 18)
28% - Gavin Newsom
22% - Tim Walz
18% - Wes Moore
14% - Pete Buttigieg
10% - Cory Booker
Analysis
So, why did Buttigieg pop to a strong second place over the past two weeks? With Harris faltering, the models seem to be propping the former Transportation Secretary into contention with odds that broke into the low twenties. While it’s not a truly discernible trend yet, it’s a growing level of support on average.
Based on his current moves, it does appear Buttigieg is planning a political comeback in the future.
A recent piece in Politico highlighted the dance some Democrats are attempting when wading into the Israel-Hamas conflict, of which Buttigieg is now a part.
Last week, Buttigieg appeared on a podcast and called Israel one of America’s greatest friends and allies.
Days after that, Buttigieg expanded and clarified his remarks in what some are characterizing as a reversal of his previous position, according to JNS:
Former U.S. transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg reversed his position on Israel on Thursday, saying that he now supports an arms embargo on the Jewish state.
The potential 2028 Democratic contender clarified his views to Politico after he gave vague answers about his positions on Israel during a podcast interview the previous week.
“For anybody, looking at images of children starving and suffering and dying is horrifying, but I do think it’s different when you’re a parent,” Buttigieg said. “I think as a parent, you see these awful images of starving children with their ribs showing and automatically, you imagine your own kids.”
In other words, all this is to say that Buttigieg is likely laying the groundwork for a 2028 presidential campaign. The more he remains in the news speaking like a candidate, the more likely AI models are to notice and move him up the list. This isn’t a commentary on what he said, but more about the fact that he’s taking public positions on pressing issues of the day.
The situation is still very fluid, of course, and issues that seem intensely relevant today may be less so two years from now when we are heading into peak presidential primary season.
Then again, the topic of Israel draws strong opinions within both parties right now in the various factions, such that any statements a candidate makes on the matter will likely be held against them in some form down the road.
That’s it for this week. Stay fresh and stay tuned.
As far as trends go, Newsom is still the default option for most Dems this far out. Harris is pulling herself out of the race, and the rest will be fighting to make waves.