Newsom's 2028 Standing: Popular but Historically Weak, AI Sees It Differently
With the California Governor grabbing the headlines this week for his trolling skills, let's examine his chances a little more closely
California Governor Gavin Newsom has been making news this week for all the right or wrong reasons, depending on your political persuasion.
For Democrats, Newsom may embody the persona necessary to counter President Trump and MAGA on the national stage. Someone not afraid to punch out to the edge and cross the line here and there for viral effect. Also, he’s good on camera and generally an attractive national candidate on paper. Look no further than POLITICO, which on Wednesday published a glowing piece titled ‘How Gavin Newsom Trolled His Way to the Top of Social Media.’
For Republicans, Newsom represents the desperation of a left-leaning Governor eager to seek higher office while ignoring the problems in his state. Also, he’s thick on the hair gel, and no one takes him seriously outside the Los Angeles city limits.
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Historically speaking, Newsom is in a precarious position right now. Compared to his Democratic predecessors, he’s not that particularly strong of a primary contender at this point in the cycle.
Sure, there are caveats. The 2028 Democratic primary will be wide open as the party searches for a new standard-bearer, and there isn’t a popular figure within the movement like Hillary Clinton, who came in with 50% support from the start.
Is Newsom weaker than Biden or Clinton?
This shouldn’t be a shock, but Newsom is relatively weak when it comes to his standing at this point in the 2028 cycle, just over three years from Election Day.
So, we did some queries and found that Newsom, based on recent Democratic primary polling within the past 60 days, is comparatively weaker than past primary leaders.
Hillary Clinton lost the primary to Barack Obama in 2008 despite her strong entrance to the race. Maybe Newsom’s standing doesn’t mean all that much, but Clinton almost won that primary and certainly entered it as a solid frontrunner until she couldn’t compete with the well-delivered message of Hope and Change.
Is Newsom weaker than Kamala Harris?
For the moment, Newsom’s biggest adversary in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary is still former Vice President Kamala Harris, even if she’s presently deferring on her future political plans.
Over the past 60 days, Harris has maintained a sizable polling lead.
However, polls are polls, and they’re not what entirely drives a candidate’s success or failure. It’s not surprising Harris still leads among potential Democratic primary voters since she was the most recent nominee, and some people feel that she was slighted with a short campaign and saddled with President Biden’s baggage.
Harris still has the “next in line” status that could serve her well.
AI predictions see Newsom as the leader
We like to look at polls, but the idea of AI Election Model is to go beyond polls and use artificial intelligence learning to provide deeper insights into politics and elections.
In that regard, it’s been clear for a month now that Newsom is the perceived frontrunner and the most likely to become the 2028 Democratic Party nominee, according to the top AI models we question every week.
For example, in our most recent 2028 Democratic nomination model run, Newsom increased his chances from the previous run:
The AI model predictions fly in the face of polling, where Newsom still struggles behind Harris.
Poll numbers alone don’t make or break a candidate, and Newsom has been punching hard to remain relevant on the national stage while he has been running a quiet quest for the presidency since 2023 or so.
As always, the biggest caveat is time. A lot will change between now and when the actual presidential primary season heats up. Newsom could consolidate his strength or fizzle out somewhere along the way to an upstart contender not even on the radar yet.
What do you think? Leave a comment below.
Newsom could be opening criticism from fellow Democrats if he continues down this path. It's a political gamble that's paying off in the short term, however.