Comparing Youngkin's 2021 polling to Spanberger's 2025 lead reveals what the numbers say about Virginia’s governor’s race.
More back-of-the-napkin math to chew on, according to ChatGPT:
Estimated Win Probabilities (August 2021)
Terry McAuliffe (D): ~57% chance of winning
Glenn Youngkin (R): ~43% chance of winning
Youngkin would have had similar odds in August 2021, and he pushed forward to beat McAuliffe. Sears has an opportunity to rally, but it will take a strong campaign from now until Election Day.
More back-of-the-napkin math to chew on, according to ChatGPT:
Estimated Win Probabilities (August 2021)
Terry McAuliffe (D): ~57% chance of winning
Glenn Youngkin (R): ~43% chance of winning
Youngkin would have had similar odds in August 2021, and he pushed forward to beat McAuliffe. Sears has an opportunity to rally, but it will take a strong campaign from now until Election Day.