AI Election Model - 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary [Week 6 - Aug. 25 Update]

Whitmer becomes a dark horse option by quietly laying campaign groundwork for 2028

Aug 25, 2025

Welcome to the last Dem model update in August. Where did the summer go?

After we finished crowning California Governor Gavin Newsom as the “one to beat” last week, someone beat him, at least according to one model. We’ll have more analysis below, but it seems that ChatGPT has decided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer shouldn’t be ruled out as a potential roadblock for Newsom in his quest for the forever presidential campaign.

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In terms of monthly support, Whitmer has been fairly steady in the middle of the pack. This could be the week for some turning in the numbers or merely a late-August blip where political news on the 2028 front is at a lull and the AI models are grasping at straws to come up with coherent numbers.

AI Model Average - 2028 Democratic Primary (Aug. 25, 2025)

As a refresher, we query ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok for thoughts on the most likely 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. Among the four, here are the average numbers this week.

We lost a few names during this run, like Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, for example, and this is the first time AOC has moved above 2%. That’s only thanks to Grok, which decided that she’s at the top of the second tier rather than the middle of the bottom.

Also, Kamala Harris is returning to more of a “status quo” level of support after her self-inflicted drop earlier this month.

Comparing week-to-week, Gavin Newsom finally came back down the earth a bit with Whitmer showing the most improvement since last week.

Wes Moore, Tim Walz, and Cory Booker all seem to be on vacation as they failed to register a blip in any AI model we queried when compared to our previous numbers.

Here’s the complete breakdown by model for this week, followed by some analysis.

ChatGPT (Aug. 25)

30% - Gretchen Whitmer
25% - Gavin Newsom
18% - Josh Shapiro
15% - Kamala Harris
12% - Andy Beshear

Grok (Aug. 25)

30% - Gavin Newsom
15% - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10% - Pete Buttigieg
8% - Josh Shapiro
7% - Kamala Harris

Gemini (Aug. 25)

25% - Kamala Harris
20% - Gavin Newsom
15% - Pete Buttigieg
10% - Gretchen Whitmer
5% - Josh Shapiro

Claude (Aug. 25)

25% - Gavin Newsom
20% - Kamala Harris
18% - Pete Buttigieg
15% - Gretchen Whitmer
12% - Josh Shapiro

Analysis

The outlier this week seems to be ChatGPT pegging Whitmer at 30% odds, five points higher than Newsom and twice as likely as Harris.

When asked for an explanation, ChatGPT provided some background:

She’s popular in Michigan (a key swing state) with strong approval ratings.
Recent fundraising and digital outreach show she’s actively building a 2028 campaign structure.
She’s positioned as a pragmatic dealmaker, contrasting with more partisan rivals.
Media coverage this month highlights her as a serious national contender.

Whitmer is clearly building a 2028 campaign structure, that’s unquestionable. It’s also true that she’s maintaining a fairly high favorable number according to recent month polling.

In short, Whitmer, as governor of a rust belt state that Democrats sorely need to win in 2028, may be better positioned to provide a unifying message that cuts across regional lines in ways Newsom simply does not. There is a reasonable case to be made that Democrats need someone who can embrace a touch of President Trump’s policy goals while rejecting his tactics. Newsom will have a harder time than Whitmer on that front.

That’s it for this week. Take a gander at the archive below if you want to see what’s been happening over the past month in our 2028 Democratic Primary AI Model.

AI Election Model