AI Election Model - 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary [Week 7 - Sept. 4 Update]

Newsom holds off all competitors and starts consolidating above 30%

Sep 04, 2025

Here we are. The first post-Labor Day update looking at the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

As you might guess, if you pay attention to political nerd stuff, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is having a mini-boom right now of support. His is the first name that comes to mind for many Democrats, and that’s clearly by design. Newsom’s running a war of publicity to become the de facto 2028 nominee before voting even starts.

Other names remain in the mix, but none with the broad consensus among AI models as Newsom.

Before we get into this week’s Democratic presidential primary model, take a minute to subscribe and consider a paid subscription if you haven’t already. Your support will directly contribute to continuing this line of research and content into the coming election cycles—many thanks for considering my request.

Compared to last month’s numbers, Newsom has gained ground while former Vice President Kamala Harris has tumbled, barely clinging to a place in the top five.

AI Model Average - 2028 Democratic Nomination (Sept. 4, 2025)

As a refresher, we query ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok for their take on the most likely 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. Among the four, here are the average numbers this week.

As a reminder, we only take the top five names from each model. If a name doesn’t appear in the top five, it receives zero for that model in the average. This is intended to find a stronger consensus for candidates that appear across multiple models. Not making the top five cut in a single model is a large penalty.

All that said, Newsom is finally breaking out this week into the low-thirties, which is an all-time high for any candidate so far.

AI Model Average - 2028 Democratic Nomination (Sept. 4 vs. Aug. 25)

The numbers from last week are quite striking. This is perhaps the biggest week-to-week shakeup we’ve seen so far. Newsom is still leading, of course, but he has improved by seven points since the last run.

On the other hand, Harris dropped over ten points with Buttigieg and Newsom picking up her losses.

Here’s the complete breakdown by model for this week, followed by some analysis.

ChatGPT (Sept. 4)

36% - Gavin Newsom
24% - Gretchen Whitmer
14% - Pete Buttigieg
13% - Josh Shapiro
13% - Kamala Harris

Gemini (Sept. 4)

35% - Gavin Newsom
25% - Pete Buttigieg
15% - Gretchen Whitmer
10% - Kamala Harris
5% - Josh Shapiro

Grok (Sept. 4)

35% - Gavin Newsom
10% - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6% - Pete Buttigieg
6% - Wes Moore
5% - Andy Beshear

Claude (Sept. 4)

25% - Gavin Newsom
16% - Pete Buttigieg
15% - Josh Shapiro
13% - Gretchen Whitmer
11% - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Analysis

Support for Newsom is growing, but mostly among Democrats eager to see someone emerge sooner rather than later as a worthy opponent to President Trump’s successor.

It’s the “just win” desire among Newsom’s party that is giving him life right now. The discussion is less about policy and politics and more about how to rebuild the coalitions that Democrats have alienated in recent cycles.

In a recent report for The Hill, Amie Parnes noted that Newsom is just about the only name that comes to mind for a lot of rank-and-file Democrats:

Democrats have become obsessed with Gavin Newsom, as the California governor becomes the topic for operatives, donors and lawmakers.
Newsom is consistently driving the news cycle and is coming up in town halls and fundraisers, and in conversations outside political circles.
While the 2028 presidential election is still more than three years away, Newsom is making the kind of name for himself that could lead to front-runner status, political operatives say.
Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons said Newsom’s name is coming up more than anyone else’s in recent weeks, particularly with people outside the political sphere.
“They ask me two questions: ‘Do you think he can win?’ And, ‘Do you think he can be the guy?’” Simmons said. “No one has ever asked me a single policy question about him.”

In this regard, Newsom has succeeded in becoming the default option in a field that will be crowded but has yet to really take shape. If his presence can fend off some potential challengers, then his strategy will have paid off in the end.

However, it’s hard to know how things will play out down the road. Will Newsom’s strategy have staying power? For the time being, the AI models seem convinced that Newsom’s wave-making meme wars with President Trump are worthy of holding the top spot as the most likely 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.

That’s it for this week. Take a gander at the archive below if you want to see what’s been happening over the past month in our 2028 Democratic Primary AI Model.

AI Election Model